PREDICT BITCOIN
After weeks of choppy trade and macro headwinds, the question dividing the market is whether February’s $60,000 low marked the cycle bottom – or whether more pain is still ahead.
Bitcoin is trading near $77,000 today, having spent most of the week pinned in a tight range as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, rising Treasury yields, and persistent ETF outflows weighed on risk assets across the board.
Markets caught a brief bid Wednesday after President Trump described the conflict with Iran as being in its “final stages” and the Senate moved to curb his war powers, easing some of the geopolitical pressure that has dominated price action all month.
But beneath the chop, a sharper debate is taking shape: has the worst already happened?
From Capitulation To Stabilization
Bitcoin’s path from its February low near $60,000 back into the high $70,000s has been anything but smooth. ETF flows have whipsawed, Q1 saw multiple violent liquidation cascades, and SoSoValue data shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just posted $1 billion in net outflows last week – the largest weekly withdrawal since late January.
Yet a growing chorus of analysts argues the structural damage may already be priced in.
On-chain data points to a confluence of signals – realized cap stabilization near $1.08 trillion, historically elevated long-term holder accumulation, and deeply negative funding rates that have persisted for 81 consecutive days – as evidence that February’s selloff likely marked a cyclical floor rather than the start of a deeper bear leg.
Research firm K33 Research went further. In a note published this week, head of research Vetle Lunde called this bear market “uniquely pessimistic” – a setup in which trader caution itself has acted as a release valve, limiting downside by preventing the leverage buildup that typically precedes deeper crashes. K33’s base case is that February’s drop toward $60,000 marked the cycle’s maximum drawdown, with Bitcoin expected to consolidate between $60,000 and $75,000 rather than retest a deeper low.
The Bull Case Underneath The Chop
Despite weak headline price action, positioning data tells a more constructive story.
Bitfinex margin longs have climbed to 80,636 BTC – a two-and-a-half year high and the largest reading since December 2023 – signaling that some of the most experienced spot traders are leaning aggressively into the slide. May 19 also produced the single largest open interest surge in perpetual futures recorded anywhere in 2026, with Binance capturing the majority of incoming flow.
The message from derivatives desks is clear: traders are not just stabilizing, they are actively building positions ahead of what they expect to be a directional move.
The bearish counter-argument is just as direct. Bitcoin remains pinned below the 21-week EMA, ETFs have snapped a multi-week inflow streak, and macro pressure from rising Treasury yields and unresolved U.S.-Iran tensions is unlikely to clear cleanly in the next several weeks.
The $6 Billion Test On May 29
The clearest near-term catalyst is just over a week away.
According to Deribit data, roughly 80,535 Bitcoin options contracts worth $6.25 billion are set to settle on May 29 – and positioning around the event has become the most-watched setup of the quarter. Deribit’s total open interest has now reached $31.3 billion, overtaking BlackRock’s IBIT at $27 billion.
The $75,000 strike carries the heaviest put concentration at $394 million in notional value, while $80,000 dominates on the call side with $532 million. Max pain – the level at which the largest number of contracts expire worthless – sits at $75,000, roughly 3% below current spot. Meanwhile, the May 29 $82,000 strike call has emerged as the single most actively traded contract on Deribit, with traders piling into upside exposure ahead of expiry.
A close above $80,000 into expiry would invalidate the bear case for many traders. A failure to reclaim resistance would reset the conversation entirely.
Trading The Question, Not Just The Chart
While analysts argue and traders position, prediction markets are translating the debate into live, capital-weighted odds.
On Duelbits Predict, users can speculate directly on thebitcoin price predictions sitting at the center of this week’s market discussion, including:
Will Bitcoin fall below $60K in 2026?
Current odds on Duelbits Predict reflect the split:
- Yes: 62%
- No: 44%
Rather than relying on a single analyst’s call, these markets aggregate conviction across thousands of participants, surfacing where real capital is actually sitting.
Disclaimer: This article is sponsored content and does not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of Bitcoin Magazine. The information provided is for promotional purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Bitcoin Magazine does not provide financial advice or endorse any specific betting or trading strategies. The Duelbits platform is not intended for users in the United States. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and ensure compliance with local laws before engaging with any financial products or services mentioned herein.
