PREDICT BITCOIN
Bitcoin fell below $60,000 for the first time since October 2024 on Monday, sinking as low as $59,099 — a move that marks a decline of more than 50% from its all-time high near $126,000.
But according to John D’Agostino, Coinbase’s head of institutional strategy, the drop is being welcomed — not feared — by the most sophisticated players in the market.
Appearing on CNBC’s Squawk Box Monday morning, D’Agostino said the institutional investors he speaks with regularly are viewing the pullback as an opportunity to accumulate at a discount, not a reason to panic.
“I just got off a plane from the Middle East, and I can tell you that the family offices in the UAE and the government and sovereign funds that are putting the effort into buying this asset class are not unhappy at being able to buy it at a discount,” D’Agostino said.
His comments align with recent data showing sustained institutional buying through the downturn.
Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company — a $330 billion sovereign wealth fund — reported holding 14.7 million shares of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as of March 31, 2026, a 16% increase quarter-over-quarter, marking four consecutive quarters of accumulation even as BTC declined roughly 40% from its all-time high.
“100 Billion Dollars of Bitcoin ETF Exposure”
Despite Bitcoin’s steep correction, D’Agostino pointed to a striking statistic as evidence of durable retail conviction: Bitcoin ETFs still hold approximately $100 billion in exposure even after the price has dropped nearly 50% from its peak.
“The price has dropped almost 50% from the peak, and we’ve only seen about a 15% drawdown in retail interest,” D’Agostino noted. “So I think both retail and institutional are signaling this is a long-term asset you want to hold.”
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust alone held roughly $51.9 billion in assets under management as of earlier this year, representing approximately 45% of all spot Bitcoin ETF assets.
Some reasons for the pullback
When pressed to identify the drivers behind Bitcoin’s “winter,” D’Agostino largely agreed with a list offered by the Squawk Box host, which included: risk-off sentiment pushing investors toward more liquid positions; interest rates remaining elevated, weakening the debasement trade thesis; regulatory clarity remaining in legislative limbo; and Strategy’s Michael Saylor breaking his long-standing “never sell” pledge by offloading a portion of the company’s Bitcoin holdings.
Saylor’s firm executed the sale of 32 bitcoins between May 26 and May 31 for approximately $2.5 million — a move that rattled market sentiment even though it represented just 0.004% of Strategy’s total 843,000+ BTC holdings. The sale triggered a sharp negative market reaction that sent BTC tumbling below $72,000 before the broader slide continued.
D’Agostino also cited a 100-day war with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as macro overhangs applying pressure to risk assets globally, while noting that crude oil has remained surprisingly subdued below $100 a barrel — a reminder that volatility in complex macro environments doesn’t always follow intuition.
On the legislative front, D’Agostino highlighted bills currently circulating in Congress that he said would strengthen the institutional infrastructure supporting Bitcoin and digital assets more broadly. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act — known as the CLARITY Act — cleared the Senate Banking Committee on May 14, 2026 with a 15-9 vote, marking the first comprehensive crypto regulatory framework to advance to the Senate floor.
A separate bill, the PARITY Act, addressing crypto taxation, is also moving on an independent legislative track with bipartisan support.
No panic at the institutional level
When asked about the risk of leveraged holders facing margin calls and forced liquidations at lower prices, D’Agostino said he was not aware of any major institutional players that were “horrifically overleveraged” at levels anywhere close to current prices. He said the bigger risk remains with retail traders on offshore exchanges offering extreme leverage.
“On the institutional side, I’m not seeing folks panicking at this point,” D’Agostino said. “I’m seeing them thinking about what the cheapest way is for them to acquire new capital to buy into an asset that they loved at $125K, they liked at $100K, and they love even more at $65K.”
Strategy appeared to underscore that point Monday, disclosing it purchased an additional 1,550 BTC for $101 million — buying the dip at approximately $65,000 per coin just days after selling 32 coins at $77,135 each.
