PREDICT BITCOIN
Bitcoin’s Lightning Network, the layer-two protocol designed to facilitate faster and cheaper transactions, has surpassed $1 billion in monthly transaction volume, according to new data from River.
In November 2025, the network processed an estimated $1.17 billion across 5.22 million transactions, marking a milestone in adoption despite Bitcoin’s stagnant price performance throughout the year.
River’s research aggregates anonymized data from major Lightning node operators to provide a network-wide estimate. Their methodology accounts for overlapping channels and extrapolates to untracked nodes, giving a more accurate picture of the Lightning ecosystem.
“This approach allows us to debunk misconceptions that Lightning adoption isn’t happening,” River said, noting contributions from entities including ACINQ, Kraken, Breez, Lightspark, LQWD, and others, covering over 50% of network capacity.
Interestingly, the transaction count fell slightly compared to 2023. Researchers attribute this to the fading of micropayment experiments in gaming and messaging that had temporarily inflated activity.
While these applications did not achieve sustained adoption, River said they expect future experimentation — particularly with AI-powered agentic payments — to drive new spikes in network usage.
Last week, Lightning Labs released an open-source toolkit that enables AI agents to run Lightning nodes, make autonomous payments, and host paid services using the Network, addressing the need for native, machine-to-machine transactions.
Bitcoin lightning transactions shifts toward larger transfers
Despite being known as a network for micropayments, the average Lightning transaction in November 2025 was $223, up from $118 the previous year. Analysts say this reflects the dominant use case today: moving larger sums between exchanges rather than everyday small purchases.
“Micropayment theory suggested high-frequency, low-value payments, but mental transaction costs for humans limit this behavior,” River explained in a social media report. “AI agents, which do not incur mental costs, could change this dynamic, potentially leading to more frequent, smaller payments in the future.”
Lightning Network’s rise highlights a layer of Bitcoin adoption that price charts often miss, driven by exchange activity and a growing number of businesses accepting this form of payment.
Crossing $1 billion in monthly volume marks a milestone for Bitcoin’s layer-two infrastructure and signals progress toward using BTC as a means of transaction and settlement.
Looking ahead, River plans to release a comprehensive report on Bitcoin adoption next week, which will include additional metrics showing meaningful growth in usage and integration across the crypto ecosystem.
