Where could this Bitcoin cycle top out? Using Sigma to measure every bull market relative to its own volatility, today’s Chart of the Day finds that the last two bulls averaged about four Sigma, and this one has covered roughly 0.63. If volatility fades like it did from 2022 to 2025, a repeat of that four Sigma uptrend gives a base case top of about $230,000 per coin, with scenarios from about $180K to $290K. This isn’t a guaranteed price prediction, but it’s a useful lens for setting expectations.
Chapters:
00:00 What Bitcoin’s Bear Market Means for Upside
00:40 What Is Sigma? Weighting Moves for Volatility
01:16 Yesterday’s Sigma Bears Recap
01:55 The Slowest Recovery Start on Record?
02:38 Sigma Bulls: 2017 vs. 2021 vs. 2025
03:37 Where Bitcoin Is Now in Sigma
05:04 Can Sigma Forecast the Cycle Top?
06:10 $230K, $290K or $180K: Three Volatility Scenarios
06:53 Timing the Top: May or Fall 2029?
07:25 Measuring With the Wrong Volatility Ruler
08:23 Bitcoin Has Run the Same Cycle Twice
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